Headlines about a potential government shutdown are back. But if history is any guide, markets don’t lose much sleep over it.

Look at the last shutdown—the longest in history, stretching 34 days from late 2018into early 2019. During that stretch, the S&P 500 actually gained over 10%. Twelve months later? Investors were sitting on gains of nearly 24%.

That pattern isn’t unusual. Across 20 shutdowns since 1976, the average return during the event was flat, and a year later the market was higher 86% of the time with a median gain of more than 12%.

The lesson: shutdowns create drama in Washington, not lasting damage in your portfolio. What matters are the fundamentals—earnings, rates, and the economic cycle.

At RollingWave Capital, we’ve already factored this kind of noise into our strategies, so you can feel confident knowing your portfolio is positioned for what really drives returns. If you’re not yet a client and want that same level of clarity and confidence, let’s have a conversation.