A few weeks ago, we published a piece called Endure. Then Capitalize.
The thesis was simple: this selloff had a political on/off switch. A ceasefire. A deal. A tweet. And when that switch flipped, the market wouldn’t wait for you.
It didn’t.
WTF Just Happened
April 2026 will go into the record books. The S&P 500 gained over 10% in a single month — something that has happened only 13 times in the past 50 years. Tech led the charge. From the lows, the index has recovered more than 15%.
That’s not a bounce. That’s a snapback.
And here’s the part that matters: most investors who moved to the sidelines never had a chance to get back in. By the time things felt “safe enough,” the move was already over.
That’s the lockout rally. And it’s becoming the defining feature of modern markets.
Why Recoveries Are Getting Faster
It’s not an accident. There are real structural reasons behind it — algorithmic trading, passive fu…blah, blah, blah- if you actually want to geek out on the mechanics, give me a shout and we’ll talk through it.
Bottom line: it’s a door that opens. And closes. Fast.
Where We Are Now
After a move this sharp, some portions of the market are stretched in the short term. That’s normal. It doesn’t concern us.
What we’re focused on is what’s happening beneath the surface. AI and technology continue to drive the most compelling earnings growth we’ve seen in years — 84% of S&P companies beat Q1 estimates, with earnings coming in nearly 21% above expectations on average. The innovation cycle powering this market is real, and in our view, there’s plenty of room left to run.
For the right clients, we remain positioned to participate in it.
The Cost of Waiting
If you’ve been on the sidelines — whether out of fear, uncertainty, or just waiting for things to feel more comfortable — April is a case study worth sitting with.
The market doesn’t ring a bell at the bottom. It doesn’t send a newsletter when it’s about to surge 10% in a month. It just moves.
The question isn’t whether there will be more volatility. There will be. The question is whether you’ll be positioned to endure it — and capitalize on the other side.
To our clients — thank you. Genuinely. Your trust means everything, and days like the ones we just navigated together are exactly why we do this.
To everyone else — are you confident your portfolio is positioned to take advantage of what’s coming next? If there’s any doubt, let’s talk.
JC
Jacob Craton
RollingWave Capital