I get asked a version of the same question almost every week:
“Is this where things start to fall apart?”
It’s a fair question. Headlines feel heavy. Oil just made one of the fastest moves higher we’ve seen in years. There’s geopolitical tension. And the market… just hasn’t gone anywhere.
But that last part is exactly the point.
Let’s Start With What’s Actually Happened
On January 5th, we highlighted opportunity in energy.
Since then:
- Chevron (CVX) climbed roughly 28%
- Schlumberger (SLB) ran as high as ~30%, currently sitting around +13%
Then on February 12th, we addressed the “bubble” narrative directly.
Since that call:
- The Nasdaq—the area most people point to as “overvalued”—is up about 1%
And that’s while:
- A major geopolitical conflict broke out
- Oil prices surged roughly 50%, one of the fastest spikes in history
If this were truly a fragile, overextended market… it wouldn’t be behaving like this.
What You’re Seeing Isn’t Weakness
It’s rotation.
And this is where most investors—and frankly, a lot of advisors—get it wrong.
There are really only three places money can go:
1. Rotation into Other Stocks (Healthy)
Money leaves one area and moves into another.
This is what we identified months ago—and it’s exactly what’s playing out.
The next phase is already beginning to take shape.
Leadership shifts.
Opportunities broaden.
The market builds a stronger foundation.
This is how sustainable bull markets behave.
2. Bonds (Defensive)
When investors get cautious, capital moves into bonds.
You’ll typically see:
- Yields falling
- A more defensive posture
- Slower equity participation
We’re not seeing a meaningful shift here that would suggest fear is taking over.
3. Cash (Fear)
This is the real tell.
When money moves to cash, it’s not repositioning—it’s exiting.
That’s what happens during:
- Panic
- Forced selling
- True market stress
We’re not seeing that either.
And Here’s Where It Gets Interesting
Identifying rotation is one thing.
Positioning for where it’s going next is where the edge is.
This is where we spend the majority of our time—tracking:
- Where capital is quietly building
- Which sectors are absorbing that flow
- And where the next leadership group is likely to emerge
Because by the time it’s obvious…
the move is already well underway.
We had conviction in energy before the move.
That wasn’t luck—it was positioning ahead of rotation.
And today, we have similar conviction in where capital is likely heading next.
So What Is the Market Actually Doing?
It’s been consolidating for over four months.
Not crashing. Not breaking. Not unraveling.
Just… moving sideways.
And historically, periods like this tend to resolve in one direction.
Higher.
There’s an old saying on Wall Street:
“Never short a dull market.”
Because dull markets aren’t weak.
They’re coiling.
What the Data Is Telling Us
We don’t rely on headlines—we rely on data.
Across the research and tools we subscribe to, the message is consistent:
- Momentum has cooled without breaking
- Breadth is improving beneath the surface
- Capital is rotating—not leaving
- Sentiment has reset without panic
That combination tends to precede upside resolution, not downside collapse.
The Bigger Picture
Markets don’t move in straight lines.
Even in strong environments, they:
- Pause
- Rotate
- Frustrate
That’s not a flaw.
That’s the process.
And right now, the process looks a lot more like continuation than conclusion.
Final Thought
If you’re waiting for everything to feel clear, calm, and obvious…
you’ll miss it.
Because markets don’t reward comfort.
They reward positioning.
The opportunity isn’t in reacting to what’s already happened—
it’s in understanding what’s likely to happen next.
And that’s where we’re focused right now.
If you want to see how we’re thinking about the next phase of this market,
reach out.
Jacob Craton
RollingWave Capital