RollingWave Capital

Research Brief

April 11, 2025

🌍 Is Copper the Best Commodity for Betting on Global Growth?

When it comes to betting on global growth, investors often look toward commodities as leading indicators. Oil has traditionally been the go-to, but as the world transitions to cleaner and more efficient energy sources, the narrative is changing.

Enter: Copper.

✅ Why Copper is Often Called “Dr. Copper”

Copper has earned the nickname “Dr. Copper” because it reflects the health of the global economy. It’s used in everything:

🔧 Construction: wiring, plumbing, roofing 

🚗 Autos: especially EVs (which use 3–4x more copper than traditional cars) 

📱 Electronics: phones, computers, appliances 

⚡ Infrastructure: power grids, data centers, 5G, solar and wind systems

There’s no scalable substitute for copper. Aluminum is less efficient and bulkier.

🤔 Copper vs. Oil

Factor	Copper	Oil
Tied to Growth?	✅ Very strong	✅ Very strong
Alternatives?	❌ Minimal	✅ Many (solar, wind, EVs, etc.)
Energy Transition?	✅ Big winner	❌ Long-term decline expected
Speculation Cycles?	⚖️ Moderate	🎢 High (geopolitics, OPEC, etc.)
ESG Narrative?	✅ Positive	❌ Negative
Storage/Transport?	✅ Easy	❌ Complex, expensive

🧪 Other Commodities Considered for Global Growth:

• – Aluminum – Used in EVs, planes, buildings, but more easily substituted 
• – Nickel – Important for batteries and stainless steel 
• – Lithium – Vital for EVs, but volatile and facing substitution risks 
• – Iron/Steel – Strong tie to infrastructure, less “clean energy” narrative 
• – Uranium – Niche now, but may benefit from a pro-nuclear shift

🔑 Updated Thoughts Given Recent Market Moves

Copper is arguably the cleanest, most irreplaceable long-term commodity play on global growth and electrification—but let’s not ignore what’s happened recently.

Shares of COPX, the copper miners ETF, are down more than 40% since last summer, including nearly a 30% drop just in the past two weeks. Much of the pressure stems from renewed trade tensions and tariffs—headlines over the past month have highlighted escalating friction between the U.S. and China, with additional restrictions aimed at electric vehicles, rare earths, and metals imports. That’s weighing on sentiment across the industrial metals space.

So betting on copper right now isn’t just a commodity call—it’s a macro call. It’s a belief that trade tensions will ease, that global demand will stabilize, and that the long-term story of electrification and growth remains intact.

If the future still means more people, more infrastructure, and more clean energy… then copper is still in the mix. But today’s entry point also comes with fear in the headlines and a lot of uncertainty already priced in. 

🚨 Oil may still dominate the short term, but it’s a bet on a system the world is slowly trying to leave behind. 

💡 Copper is a bet on where we’re going—and after this kind of washout, it may be one of the more interesting contrarian setups out there.

📩 Want help building a global growth portfolio—or putting recent volatility into perspective? Let’s talk.